The Ceasefire Lasted 24 Hours

Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Two tankers passed through. Then Israel struck Lebanon — and Iran shut it again. Game theory predicted this. Three players. Three agendas. One broken deal. The US wanted Hormuz open. Israel wanted to keep bombing Lebanon. Iran wanted both wars stopped. America left Lebanon ambiguous on purpose — and Iran punished the entire coalition. 20% of the world's oil flows through Hormuz. Every week it's shut, gas goes up $1/gallon. Talks start Friday in Islamabad. If they fail, oil spikes again. Our model gave a 42% chance of a Pakistan-mediated deal — it happened. Now it says 28% chance of prolonged stalemate. Subscribe to see if the math is right again. #iran #hormuz #ceasefire #oil #gametheory #geopolitics #oilprices #gasprices #straitofhormuz #moneynmaps Created with geotasker.ai