Mongolia Just Broke Its Coal Record. They Earned a Third Less.

Mongolia exported a record 90 million tonnes of coal in 2025 — and earned roughly a third less money than the year before. The reason: China is effectively their only buyer. Average export prices collapsed nearly 40%, from \$118/tonne to about \$70/tonne — the lowest in 15 years. Story arc: ↳ 90M tonnes shipped (new all-time record, 106% of govt target) ↳ ~51% of China's coking coal imports come from Mongolia ↳ Prices crushed from \$118 → \$70/t as China's steel demand softened ↳ After 17 years of debate, Mongolia signed a cross-border rail deal at Gashuun Sukhait in Feb 2026 — using China's rail gauge, built by China Energy Investment Corp ↳ Backup plan: Oyu Tolgoi (world's 4th-largest copper mine by 2030) — but copper concentrate still travels south to China for processing ↳ The contradiction: record exports, less revenue, new infrastructure built on the buyer's terms When one country takes nearly everything you sell, they eventually set the price too. Sources: - Mysteel (2025 export records) - World Bank Mongolia Economic Update (May 2025) - IEA Coal 2025 report - APBI-ICMA (China coking coal imports) - Railway Gazette / SCMP (Gashuun Sukhait rail signing) - East Asia Forum (Mining drives Mongolia, Feb 2026) - EurasiaReview (Copper, Power, Peril — Mongolia chessboard) - Mongolia Focus (2026 budget proposal: coal to copper) Follow Money Maps for more. #geopolitics #mongolia #china #coal #criticalminerals #commodities #monopsony #oyutolgoi #karaganda #moneymaps #Shorts