Indonesia Got 60% of the World’s Nickel. China Got the Money

In 2020, Indonesia banned all raw nickel exports to force the world's smelters and battery factories to build inside the country. It worked. Indonesia's share of global nickel supply jumped from 31.5% in 2020 to 60.2% in 2024 — nearly two-thirds of world supply. Then China captured the value chain. What happened: ↳ Chinese-backed smelters (Tsingshan, CATL, Huayou) built almost all the new processing capacity ↳ June 2025: CATL broke ground on a \$6 billion battery plant in Karawang, West Java — the biggest Chinese investment ever in Indonesia ↳ China's EV market pivoted to LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) batteries — they use no nickel ↳ Nearly 50% of EVs now run on LFP. Nickel demand collapsing. Indonesia's fight-back (2026): ↳ Mining quota cut by 120 million tonnes (from 379Mt to 260-270Mt) ↳ World's biggest nickel mine — Weda Bay — slashed 71% (42Mt → 12Mt) ↳ Mining license terms cut from 3 years to 1 year ↳ Tiered royalties + restricted new smelter capacity Indonesia got the factories. China got the chemistry. The leverage war is just starting. Sources: NBR (Indonesia's Nickel Export Ban), S&P Global, Mining Technology, Argus, Oregon Group, Carbon Credits, Battery News, ChinaEVHome, Goldman Sachs, Lowy Institute, IISD. Follow Money Maps for more. #geopolitics #indonesia #china #nickel #criticalminerals #ev #batteries #catl #tsingshan #moneymaps